Montana Cattle Market Outlook 2025: Risk Management, Heifer Retention & Long-Term Trade Impact
As we head into 2025, Montana cattle producers are navigating familiar territory: tight supplies, unpredictable weather, and shifting market drivers. But with volatility comes opportunity—especially for those looking ahead and making strategic decisions early.
Long-Term Gains from Tariff Policies
While trade discussions often stir strong opinions, the long-term impact of tariffs has proven to support domestic beef prices. In recent years, protective measures have helped shield U.S. producers from being undercut by low-cost imports. Despite the short-term friction, these policies have created more favorable pricing environments for Montana ranchers. With the U.S. still exporting around 11% of total beef production, maintaining strong and balanced trade agreements will be essential. And while markets like Japan, China, and South Korea remain vital export destinations, trade relationships with Mexico and Canada will continue to influence both import and export dynamics.
Locking In Prices Early: Eliminating Risk Where You Can
With calf prices trending strong, many producers are starting to look at early contracting as a tool to eliminate risk. If you have a handle on your input costs and projected weaning weights, there’s no harm in exploring forward contracts that lock in profit margins. At our operation, we recently contracted steers and heifers for fall 2025 delivery. It’s a relief to remove some of the guesswork for the year ahead—and that peace of mind can be worth more than chasing the last nickel come shipping day.
Heifer Retention: Will 2025 Be the Turning Point?
We’ve been talking about it for a couple years now—and 2025 might finally be the year we see meaningful heifer retention. Market conditions are there, but weather, feed availability, and interest rates have delayed decisions for many. If moisture shows up and grass holds, there’s a real chance we’ll see the beginning of herd expansion. When that shift happens, expect to see even tighter feeder supplies as more replacement heifers are held back from sale barns.
Watching Slaughter Weights and Competing Proteins
One thing we’re keeping an eye on is slaughter weights. In 2024, heavier weights helped offset reduced cattle numbers, keeping beef production fairly stable. Can those weights keep climbing? Possibly—but we may be near the ceiling. Feed remains affordable for now, which could encourage longer feeding periods again.
At the same time, we’re watching for any unexpected growth in pork and poultry production. These sectors can scale up faster than beef, and their increased supply can impact consumer choices at the meat case. While there are few signs of expansion now, it’s a variable that will influence cattle markets.
Final Thoughts
The fundamentals heading into 2025 look solid for Montana beef producers. Supplies are tight, demand is strong, and global markets are still absorbing premium U.S. beef. But to stay ahead, it’s not enough to just ride the wave—you have to manage risk, know your costs, and be willing to make early decisions when they pencil out.
Tanner Anderson Rancher & Real Estate Broker
Northwest Realty & Auction
406.654.4473 | Tanner@NorthwestRealtyMT.com